Market Overview
Trump’s newly announced trade tariffs have sent shockwaves through global markets, prompting investors to seek safer assets. The universal 10% tariff on all imports and reciprocal tariffs on 60 countries have created immediate ripple effects across commodities and major currency pairs. As import costs rise, concerns over inflation and a possible recession grow.
These aggressive policy shifts are reshaping economic indicators and investor sentiment. With countries likely to respond with countermeasures, market participants are adjusting their strategies, particularly in safe-haven assets like gold and the Japanese yen.
GOLD
Gold has surged to new highs following the announcement, as traders pile into safe-haven assets. The MACD shows strong buying volume while the RSI indicates sustained bullish momentum. We may see a short-term retracement, but overall momentum remains bullish.
The setup is ideal for breakout entries, especially as the global economic outlook deteriorates. Current price action may form a bullish engulfing pattern on the higher timeframes, indicating strong continuation potential. Given the escalating geopolitical risk, gold remains a key asset to watch.
SILVER
Silver is currently consolidating, but upward potential remains. MACD and RSI provide neutral signals for now, and silver is acting as a hedge to gold’s strength. If gold continues to rally, silver is expected to follow.
Traders should wait for clearer confirmation before entering. A bullish engulfing candle or volume spike could signal a prime trade timing window for a breakout long.
DXY (US Dollar Index)
The Dollar slumped in response to tariff announcements. MACD and RSI suggest the sell-off is stabilizing, but the technical gap makes indicators less reliable short-term.
We advise caution here. While further downside is possible, waiting for tomorrow’s session or next week may be better for precise trade timing, as volatility settles and clearer economic indicators emerge.
GBPUSD
The Pound has gained significant ground against the weakened Dollar. Both MACD and RSI show rising momentum and volume, reinforcing the bullish structure.
This is a strong major currency pair setup for trend continuation. Long trades can be considered on pullbacks or with breakout entries above recent highs.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD mirrored GBPUSD’s reaction, strengthening off Dollar weakness. The MACD and RSI both reflect growing bullish momentum. While risk sentiment globally is mixed, the Aussie is showing resilience.
Look for a bullish engulfing pattern on the 4-hour chart to signal strong continuation. With market volatility high, precision in trade timing is key.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi has held support at 0.56859 and is showing signs of recovery. MACD and RSI are beginning to align bullishly, although overall structure still leans bearish. Caution is advised due to lingering volatility.
A confirmed break above EMA200 may trigger breakout entries for bullish continuation, but wait for solid confirmation before jumping in.
EURUSD
The Euro followed expectations, strengthening in line with Dollar weakness. MACD and RSI remain bullish. While minor retracements are possible, this pair remains a solid long candidate.
Use economic indicators as a secondary filter to refine trade timing. Momentum supports bullish setups on dips or confirmed bullish engulfing candles.
USDJPY
Investors have turned to the Yen as a safe haven. The pair was rejected at EMA200, and MACD shows growing bearish volume. RSI confirms downside pressure.
This is a textbook setup for shorting. Traders looking for breakout entries should watch for a clean break below recent support zones to ride the next leg down.
USDCHF
The Swiss Franc has strengthened as investors seek security beyond the Dollar. MACD and RSI both suggest increasing downside momentum.
While price action confirms bearish sentiment, a small retracement could offer an ideal short entry. This pair aligns well with the current macro outlook.
USDCAD
USDCAD is too volatile at the moment, with conflicting signals between CAD strength and global uncertainty. MACD reflects growing bearish volume, but structure remains unclear.
Wait for a confirmed break of structure before considering trades. For now, sidelining this pair is the best move until a clear trend emerges.
COT Report Sentiment Analysis
Institutional positioning gives us a valuable snapshot of market sentiment and supports trade timing strategies:
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (4/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (4/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – STRONG (3/5)
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (4/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
These biases should guide your exposure to major currency pairs and metals as the new tariffs take effect.
Final Thoughts
The global market has entered a high-alert phase following Trump’s aggressive tariff policy. Gold and the Yen have become top choices for protection, while major currency pairs are undergoing rapid shifts in sentiment.
Stay tuned to updated economic indicators, wait for high-probability breakout entries, and use patterns like bullish engulfing candles for confirmation. In this volatile environment, precise trade timing is essential for both protection and profit.
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