Market Analysis
GOLD
GOLD prices surged ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement. During yesterday’s trading session, there was a notable increase in volume, pushing gold prices higher. This movement was likely driven by profit-takers re-entering the market after prices dipped to premium levels.
Earlier today, Trump announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs, while simultaneously raising tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%. This could further enhance gold’s appeal as a safe haven, especially as the 90-day window allows space for potential international negotiations aimed at easing the current tariffs.
Both the MACD and RSI are showing rising volume and momentum, reinforcing the bullish outlook for gold. However, while the pause may alleviate immediate inflation concerns, it doesn’t eliminate the underlying tariff issues. Investors should stay alert for further developments.
SILVER
SILVER is approaching the EMA200 after gaining in yesterday’s session. Although the broader momentum remains bearish, there’s an increasing possibility for price appreciation, particularly if gold continues its upward movement. The MACD and RSI indicate rising volume and bullish momentum, suggesting that silver could see further gains in the short term.
DXY (US Dollar Index)
The Dollar is showing signs of further weakness. The EMA200 continues to serve as strong resistance, as seen in previous sessions. The MACD indicates rising selling volume, while the RSI suggests growing bearish momentum. With the tariff pause potentially providing a temporary cushion, price may stabilize and consolidate at current levels. However, the technical outlook still leans bearish, and further downside is expected unless macroeconomic dynamics shift during the 90-day tariff pause.
GBPUSD
The Pound remains in consolidation near the EMA200, caught between two key price levels. Both the MACD and RSI show increasing volume and momentum pointing toward a bearish continuation. We maintain a bearish stance on this pair unless a clear breakout occurs.
AUDUSD
The Aussie Dollar is facing resistance at both the EMA200 and 0.61705. While the RSI and MACD indicate growing bullish momentum, the overall price structure remains bearish. We anticipate that this recent bounce will be short-lived, and we continue to look for selling opportunities as price action suggests further downside.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi is behaving similarly to the Aussie, facing resistance at the EMA200. While the MACD and RSI show increased bullish volume and momentum, the broader trend remains bearish. We’re holding off on a directional bias until we see a clearer move or confirmed breakout.
EURUSD
The Euro failed to break higher after being resisted at 1.10478. Despite multiple attempts, none were successful, opening the door for bearish movement in the coming days. However, as long as the broader price structure remains bullish, we won’t call for a sell until we see definitive signs of a trend reversal.
USDJPY
The Yen remains within a wide consolidation range and has not decisively broken in either direction. Both the MACD and RSI hint at a potential bullish move, but the consolidation is likely to continue. We are maintaining a conservative approach on this pair until stronger momentum emerges.
USDCHF
The Swiss Franc has remained in consolidation following a brief surge in buying after Trump’s tariff pause announcement. Despite short-term inflation concerns easing, the immediate bullish push appears reactionary. Although the MACD shows increased bullish volume, the RSI signals overbought conditions. We expect further selling in the days ahead as the overall structure remains bearish.
USDCAD
The Canadian Dollar is showing increased selling pressure, with the MACD and RSI reflecting a rise in bearish volume and momentum. The EMA200 is acting as a solid resistance level, supporting the bearish outlook for CAD strength. We continue to look for short opportunities unless a significant shift in price action occurs.
COT Reports Analysis
Here’s the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) outlook:
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – WEAK (3/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – WEAK (3/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – STRONG (5/5)
- NZD – WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – WEAK (3/5)
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Final Thoughts
The market is reacting to the new tariff developments, with both gold and silver showing strong bullish momentum, while the DXY and most major currency pairs continue to reflect bearish trends. As always, patience and precision are key. Traders should focus on trade timing, breakout entries, and stay cautious until clearer direction emerges.
For those interested in real-time updates and more tactical insights, stay connected and continue to monitor the evolving market dynamics.
