Market Overview
Implemented Tariffs
- Baseline Tariff: 10% on all imports to the U.S., effective April 5, 2025, excluding Canada, Mexico, and Belarus.
- Automotive Tariffs: 25% on non-USMCA-compliant vehicles and parts, effective April 3, 2025.
- Aluminum & Steel Tariffs: Section 232 tariffs increased to 25% on aluminum (including beer cans and other derivatives), effective March 12, 2025.
Reciprocal Tariffs (Effective April 9, 2025)
- China: 34% tariff
- European Union: 20% tariff
- Angola: 32% tariff
- Cambodia: 49% tariff
- Other Countries: Varying from 11% to 50%, based on bilateral trade imbalances
Planned Tariffs by Other Countries
- China: Export controls on rare earth metals, effective immediately.
- European Union: Planned $8B in duties on U.S. goods, including tech and agriculture.
- Brazil & India: Threatened 100% tariffs on U.S. goods unless exemptions are granted.
These tariff changes are shaking global markets. The fast-moving nature of these new trade policies has led to significant market volatility and the potential for a broader trade war. While the U.S. is looking to enhance its economic position, these tariffs are putting immense pressure on international relations and trade alliances.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that the economic impact may be greater than initially anticipated, with the possibility of slower growth and higher inflation. As of now, markets are pricing in a 34% chance of a -25 bps rate cut for the May 6–7 FOMC meeting.
Impact on Businesses and Consumers: With little time for businesses to prepare, the impact is already visible. Price increases, disrupted supply chains, and cutbacks on operations are likely. Consumers are pulling back on spending, sensing inflation and instability, further contributing to a self-reinforcing economic slowdown.
Patience is required as we monitor the unfolding impact of these tariffs and their effects on global markets.
Market Analysis
GOLD
GOLD is experiencing significant volatility. Despite the MACD and RSI signaling continuation of a sell-off, a sudden bullish spike during the Asian session indicated potential profit-taking or margin call coverage. This unpredictability suggests consolidation might extend for now. However, the potential for another sell-off remains as market sentiment shifts quickly. Recommendation: Avoid trading unless you can withstand the heightened volatility. A rapid trade setup is possible but highly risky.
SILVER
SILVER is reflecting the same volatility as GOLD. The MACD and RSI indicate increased bearish momentum, suggesting further downside in the coming days. As with GOLD, we remain cautious and recommend waiting for a clearer signal before entering any trades.
DXY (US Dollar Index)
The DXY surged following tariff announcements, with increased volume seen on the MACD and RSI normalizing. However, despite this short-term rally, the overall structure remains bearish, with the EMA200 likely acting as resistance. The forex market trend analysis suggests that the dollar’s strength may be temporary, and the bearish outlook could resume.
GBPUSD
The British Pound is seeing strong selling momentum, as confirmed by both the MACD and RSI. A complete shift in market direction occurred suddenly, and further downside is expected in the coming days. Watch for further bearish setups in this pair.
AUDUSD
The Australian Dollar continues to show weakness, with MACD and RSI indicating increased bearish momentum. While the market remains unpredictable, selling opportunities may arise if the trend persists, though traders should stay conservative due to ongoing market fragility.
NZDUSD
The New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) has followed the Aussie Dollar in its shift toward bearish momentum. The market fundamentals quickly shifted back to a sell position, driven by a broader risk-off sentiment. The MACD and RSI confirm the downside trend, and further bearish opportunities are likely in the coming days. Conservative trading is recommended due to the unpredictable nature of the market.
EURUSD
The Euro is facing significant selling pressure due to the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the U.S. Without diplomatic interventions, further downside is expected. Bearish opportunities are on the horizon, and the MACD and RSI indicate increased selling momentum.
USDJPY
The Japanese Yen is showing signs of strength as a safe-haven currency. Despite some selling pressure, the Yen continues to resist downward movement. The MACD and RSI indicate increasing bearish movement, but overall market momentum remains subdued. More selling opportunities may arise, but conservative positioning is advised.
USDCHF
The Swiss Franc is strengthening against the Dollar, acting as a safe-haven asset. Similar to the Yen, the MACD and RSI indicate bearish momentum, and further downside is expected. Look for selling opportunities in the days ahead.
USDCAD
The Canadian Dollar remains weak but is testing the EMA200 and the bottom of its consolidation range. The MACD and RSI suggest growing bullish momentum. If prices break above the EMA200, a return to bullish behavior is possible. Watch for bullish setups later this week.
COT Reports Analysis
Here’s the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) analysis:
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – WEAK (3/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – WEAK (3/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – STRONG (5/5)
- NZD – WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – WEAK (3/5)
Utilize these ratings to filter your trades and refine execution strategies. If you’re evaluating platform tools, refer to our MT4 vs MT5 comparison to ensure you’re using the most suitable platform for your trading style.
Final Thoughts
As the forex market analysis indicates, markets are highly reactive to ongoing tariff developments. Volatility is at a high, and risk sentiment can shift at any moment. Whether you’re looking for rapid trade setups, trading EUR/USD tips, or comparing platforms like MT4 vs MT5, now is the time for precision and caution.
Stay connected for real-time updates and tactical insights to stay ahead of the market curve.
