Market Overview
GOLD
Trump has now imposed tariffs on China of up to 245%, effective April 16th. Today, we are seeing the results of this aggressive move. There is growing doubt over the stability of the U.S. economy, and Trump shows no signs of slowing down. In addition to these concerns, we are seeing increased geopolitical uncertainty in the Russia–Ukraine war, U.S.–Houthis tensions, and the Iran–Israel conflict. Not to mention, uncertainty still surrounds whether a deal will be reached in the Iran nuclear talks.
This has greatly translated into GOLD gaining a massive surge in bullish runs, with prices soaring beyond $3,420/oz—a full $220/oz higher than what most analysts initially anticipated. We continue to watch for $3,800/oz as this year’s milestone for gold, though this can change depending on how global economic dynamics unfold in the coming days.
The MACD and RSI reflect this strong bullish sentiment. Overall price action shows no slowdown in momentum, and we expect further buying to continue.
SILVER
SILVER prices have found increased strength, showing signs of a bullish continuation. However, the MACD is showing consolidation, while the RSI fails to confirm any strong directional bias. Thus, silver remains in consolidation. This reflects the prevailing sentiment that GOLD remains the more attractive asset, which is why traders and analysts continue to prioritize gold. Only when we see a clear rise in silver might we anticipate a slowdown in gold’s advances.
DXY (Dollar Index)
The dollar is currently seeing increased momentum and volume for selling, following a normalization phase as reflected by the RSI. The MACD is also showing increased selling volume after a brief bullish push failed to gain traction in price. This supports the view of further weakness in the dollar, and we continue to look for more selling opportunities.
GBP/USD
The Pound is currently experiencing a strong bullish movement. Both the MACD and RSI show increased volume and momentum in favor of continued gains. Price action also supports this outlook. We look for more bullish opportunities to take in the coming sessions.
AUD/USD
The Aussie dollar finds increased buying momentum and volume. While prices are currently consolidating, they are testing support at 0.64086. We remain on the lookout for more buying opportunities.
As for the RBA, swaps are implying a 25 basis point rate cut is fully priced in for its next meeting in May, with about a 20% chance of a 50 bps move. A total easing of 125 bps is expected this year.
NZD/USD
We are currently seeing growth in both bullish momentum and volume for the Kiwi, as reflected by the RSI and MACD. Although the MACD shows signs of increased bearish volume, this may be a reflection of normalization rather than true bearish reversal. There remains a stronger case for a bullish trend, and we continue to look for more buying opportunities.
Markets still expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut its 3.5% cash rate by 25 bps in May and lower it to 2.75% by year-end.
EUR/USD
The Euro is showing signs of increased bullish movement. The RSI reflects growing bullish momentum, while the MACD, though currently showing a sell, is being countered by a bounce off the lower boundary of its consolidation zone. We expect more buying to come in the following days and remain bullish on the Euro.
USD/JPY
The Yen consolidated after yesterday’s trading, but this shows increased market comfort with trading below prior levels—indicating potential for further selling. Both the RSI and MACD align with this sentiment, showing increased bearish momentum and volume. We continue to look for more selling opportunities.
USD/CHF
The Franc is currently experiencing increased selling volume and is testing resistance at the lower boundary of its consolidation zone. We expect continued selling pressure in the coming days. The RSI also reflects overbought conditions as it tests this boundary, increasing the likelihood of a sell continuation from current levels. The Franc remains a more secure alternative to the dollar at this time, but that doesn’t rule out short-term selling setups.
USD/CAD
The CAD has stayed stagnant after failing to break below 1.37881. We may see more consolidation ahead. However, the RSI suggests continued bearish momentum. If the CAD fails to break this support again upon the next test, we may see the continuation of consolidation. Otherwise, we remain biased toward a bearish continuation.
COT Report Analysis
Here’s the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) outlook, reinforcing directional bias:
AUD – WEAK (3/5)
GBP – WEAK (3/5)
CAD – WEAK (2/5)
EUR – STRONG (5/5)
JPY – STRONG (5/5)
CHF – WEAK (4/5)
USD – STRONG (5/5)
NZD – WEAK (4/5)
GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
These COT Reports give an insight into how professional traders are positioning themselves in various currency pairs. Monitoring these reports can help identify opportunities for rapid trade setups and validate your trading strategies.
Final Thoughts
The forex market continues to reflect GOLD’s strength as central banks shift reserves in response to global instability. Weakness in the Dollar also provides bullish setups in pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. With volatility at the forefront, successful traders will rely on strong technicals, economic updates, and timely COT data to navigate the path forward.
