Market Overview
As attention shifts toward the upcoming trade tariffs under President Trump, several nations—beyond just India—are taking proactive steps to secure safer trade deals. In a surprising move, U.S. President Donald Trump joined trade talks with a Japanese delegation, later stating that “big progress” had been made. On Thursday, Trump appeared alongside Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, expressing optimism about resolving trade tensions that have strained U.S.-European relations.
Although this has injected some optimism into the market, analysts remain cautious. Until there’s a clear shift in Trump’s tone or official policy changes, this optimism remains speculative.
The European Central Bank (ECB) took action to support its economy by cutting rates by 25 basis points, citing uncertainty among consumers and businesses. Despite the easing measures, it’s clear that global trade tensions continue to dampen confidence.
Meanwhile, within the U.S., Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the Fed would await more data before adjusting interest rates, warning that Trump’s tariff policies could push inflation and employment further from the Fed’s targets.
This uncertainty underscores that the latest data doesn’t yet reflect the forward-looking indicators the Fed needs. As Powell’s caution continues to curb inflationary risks, it also strengthens investor concerns about a potential economic slowdown in the U.S. The situation remains volatile, and the parameters of potential monetary policy outcomes have widened.
Market Analysis
There will be no precious metals report on Friday, April 18 due to the Good Friday holiday, as most markets will be closed. This could result in a quieter trading session for GOLD and SILVER, so traders should keep this in mind when planning their trades.
GBPUSD
The Pound continues to show a bullish trend, with both the MACD and RSI indicating increasing bullish volume and momentum. As the Dollar weakens, GBPUSD remains on an upward trajectory. We continue to look for buying opportunities as momentum remains strong, with trade timing crucial for capturing potential breakouts.
AUDUSD
The Aussie Dollar remains in a consolidation phase at highs. While MACD and RSI show early signs of bullish momentum, a clear breakout has not yet materialized. We remain cautious, waiting for a structural shift before committing to further positions. Trade timing will be important once a clear direction emerges.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi Dollar mirrors the Aussie Dollar in performance, with bullish momentum still intact. The MACD and RSI are supportive, but we are mindful of a potential pullback to the EMA200. Trade timing should focus on positioning for a continued upward trend while staying alert to short-term corrections.
EURUSD
The Euro is consolidating, but the overall trend remains bullish. Both the MACD and RSI show underlying strength, and a retracement to key support levels is likely before further upward movement. We remain cautiously optimistic and are looking for buying opportunities once consolidation gives way to a breakout.
USDJPY
The Yen is facing more selling pressure as the Dollar weakens. MACD and RSI confirm bearish momentum in USDJPY, and we expect the downtrend to continue. Breakout entries are likely once the pair tests lower support levels, with trade timing being essential for those looking to capitalize on further downside.
USDCHF
The Swiss Franc is consolidating, with neither the MACD nor RSI showing strong momentum in either direction. We remain cautious and await a clear break in price action before considering breakout entries. For now, USDCHF is relatively flat, and trade timing is crucial once a clear trend emerges.
USDCAD
The Canadian Dollar has been under pressure, but there are early signs of bullish momentum. The MACD and RSI show growing volume, suggesting that CAD strength could continue. However, the overall trend remains bearish, and we continue to look for short opportunities unless there is a decisive break to the upside.
COT Reports Analysis
Here’s the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) outlook:
- AUD – WEAK (3/5)
- GBP – WEAK (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (4/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (3/5)
- USD – STRONG (4/5)
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (4/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
Utilizing COT reports can be a powerful tool for refining trade timing and identifying breakout entries across key pairs. With EUR and JPY showing strength and AUD, GBP, and NZD showing weakness, positioning trades to align with these trends could yield profitable opportunities.
Final Thoughts
As the U.S. Dollar faces increasing downward pressure, gold and silver continue to perform well, with analysts expecting further bullish moves. Trade timing will be critical, especially as breakout entries in GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and EURUSD offer attractive prospects.
Stay connected for the latest insights into economic indicators and how global trade tensions continue to influence currency and commodity markets.
