Market Analysis
GOLD
GOLD prices are experiencing strong bullish momentum, as anticipated. This surge occurred during the early Asian session, with traders and analysts buying at a premium. The MACD confirms the move with increased bullish volume, while the RSI is approaching overbought levels, suggesting the possibility of a brief pullback before a continuation higher. GOLD has now printed new historic highs at $3,275.30/oz, surpassing expectations from many analysts for the year. We maintain our outlook of a target at $3,800/oz by year-end, subject to how geopolitical and economic dynamics evolve. For traders, this is a crucial time to watch for trade timing opportunities as the breakout entries approach key resistance levels.
SILVER
SILVER remains relatively muted despite GOLD’s breakout, reinforcing the view that GOLD still has room to climb. We expect SILVER to catch up once GOLD rallies further. The RSI signals a cool-down following overbought conditions, and although the MACD is showing increased bullish volume, it continues to lag behind price action, indicating a disconnect between momentum and actual price movement. Patience is key here as we await clearer direction. Watch for trade timing to enter on potential breakout entries once SILVER aligns with GOLD’s strength.
DXY (US Dollar Index)
The US Dollar continues to face downward pressure. The MACD shows a divergence with increased selling volume despite printing positives, reflecting underlying bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, the RSI suggests the market is oversold, supporting the idea of continued consolidation at these lows before another leg down. Traders looking for USD weakness should be ready to capitalize on breakout entries once the Dollar starts to lose further ground against major currency pairs.
GBPUSD
The Pound is seeing a resurgence of bullish movement, supported by both the MACD and RSI, which show strengthening bullish volume and momentum. We anticipate continued upside in the coming sessions, particularly as the Dollar weakens. Trade timing will be crucial to catch this continued momentum. GBPUSD is one of the better pairs to target for breakout entries, as the structure remains intact with bullish momentum continuing to build.
AUDUSD
The Aussie Dollar reflects strong bullish volume and momentum, confirmed by the MACD and RSI. However, there is potential for a pullback near the EMA200 before any continuation higher. Still, we maintain a bullish bias and look for further opportunities. The Aussie remains sensitive to global economic indicators, so trade timing will be essential in entering a position at the optimal moment.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi mirrors the Aussie Dollar in performance, showing increasing bullish momentum and volume. The MACD and RSI remain supportive, but we exercise caution given the possibility of a short-term retracement back to the EMA200. The momentum remains upward, but be aware of potential price shifts and adjust trade timing accordingly.
EURUSD
The Euro continues to consolidate, though it respects the broader bullish trend. The MACD and RSI reflect underlying strength, supporting the expectation for further gains in the coming sessions. However, a retracement to test support levels at the EMA200 is likely before we see a bullish breakout. Trade timing here will be essential, and we continue to look for buying opportunities when confirmation comes from technical indicators.
USDJPY
The Yen remains in consolidation, as traders continue shifting toward GOLD as a hedge amid rising concerns over global trade and economic slowdown—particularly driven by Trump’s tariff strategies. Both the MACD and RSI lack significant directional signals, indicating that range-bound trading may persist in the near term. We remain cautious and prefer waiting for a clearer breakout or a trade timing entry once momentum builds in either direction.
USDCHF
The Swiss Franc remains in consolidation, with neither the MACD nor RSI presenting strong directional momentum. We anticipate further selling once broader market participation returns. At the moment, most of the movement is concentrated in the Pound, Aussie, and Kiwi, while the Franc remains relatively flat. Look for breakout entries or trade timing once price action confirms a clear direction.
USDCAD
The Canadian Dollar is showing short-term bullish momentum, pushing toward the EMA200, as seen in both the MACD and RSI. However, the overall trend remains bearish, and we continue to favor sell opportunities unless price structure breaks convincingly to the upside. Trade timing will be crucial to enter at the optimal point for a short position or to catch the potential retracement.
COT Report Analysis
Here’s the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) outlook:
- AUD – WEAK (3/5)
- GBP – WEAK (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (4/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (3/5)
- USD – STRONG (4/5)
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (4/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
Use these COT reports to validate your trade timing and plan for breakout entries in the markets. The strong positions in EUR and JPY contrast with the weak positions in AUD, GBP, and NZD, giving clear direction for potential trades.
Final Thoughts
By analyzing gold, silver, and forex market trends, traders can fine-tune their trade timing to capitalize on breakout entries. Economic indicators and geopolitical developments continue to drive volatility, offering ample opportunity for those prepared to act swiftly. Monitoring these trends closely will help traders identify high-probability setups in the market.
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