Market Overview
With the recent escalation in global trade tensions, market volatility has surged. Countries are responding to U.S. tariffs, with several imposing reciprocal duties on American goods. As of April 2025, a 10% tariff is applied to nearly all imports into the U.S. (excluding Canada, Mexico, and Belarus). A 25% tariff on automotive imports began on April 3, while aluminum and steel tariffs have been in effect since March 12 under Section 232.
Key retaliatory tariffs, effective April 9, include:
- China – 34%
- EU – 20%
- Angola – 32%
- Cambodia – 49%
- Others – 11–50%, depending on trade imbalances
In response, countries like China have imposed export controls on rare earth metals, while the EU plans to enforce $8 billion in duties targeting U.S. tech and agriculture. Brazil and India are also threatening retaliatory tariffs unless exemptions are granted.
Markets are now bracing for the possibility of a full-blown trade war. The Fed Chair Powell has warned that the economic fallout could exceed expectations, with a 34% chance of a -25bps rate cut expected during the May 6–7 FOMC meeting.
From a forex pair analysis perspective, volatility is high, risk sentiment is shifting, and trade setups must be approached with caution. Let’s dive into the technical breakdown.
Market Analysis
GOLD
GOLD prices have been highly volatile amidst global trade tensions. Despite technical sell-off signals from the MACD and RSI, a sudden bullish spike during the Asian session unsettled market sentiment. This suggests that profit-taking or margin calls are influencing the price action.
While the overall market bias suggests further consolidation, traders should exercise caution and avoid aggressive positions unless prepared for sudden market movements. There is potential for a rapid trade setup, but the risk is elevated.
SILVER
SILVER is mirroring GOLD’s volatility. Both the MACD and RSI show increased bearish momentum, indicating that further downside is likely. Patience is key — traders should wait for a more stable signal before entering.
DXY (US Dollar Index)
The Dollar Index surged post-tariff announcements. MACD volume increased sharply, and the RSI is normalizing. Despite this, the overall structure remains bearish, with the EMA200 acting as resistance. This aligns with cautious forex market trend analysis expectations — while the dollar may show strength in the short term, it could be short-lived.
GBPUSD
The British Pound is under significant selling pressure. Both the MACD and RSI confirm increased bearish momentum, marking a reversal from last week’s uptrend. Unless the U.S. dollar weakens quickly, further downside is expected. Keep an eye on this pair for rapid trade setups.
AUDUSD
The Aussie Dollar is weakening. Both MACD and RSI show a clear bearish trend with growing volume. While we remain conservative due to the market’s fragility, selling opportunities could emerge with short pullbacks in the near future.
NZDUSD
The New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) showed early bullish signs, but sentiment quickly flipped to bearish. The MACD and RSI confirm strong downside volume, suggesting the Kiwi could continue falling. With markets in risk-off mode, the Kiwi may face further declines. However, conservatism is warranted due to the unpredictability of global events.
EURUSD
The Euro is facing increased selling pressure after being targeted by U.S. tariffs. Without any negotiations to alleviate these policies, further downside seems likely. Both the MACD and RSI confirm the bearish outlook, and trading EUR/USD tips now lean toward sell-side setups.
USDJPY
The Japanese Yen is acting as a safe haven. Despite low volatility, price is attempting to break through resistance zones. Both MACD and RSI show increasing selling pressure. If this momentum holds, expect continued downside for USDJPY. This is a solid opportunity for traders seeking forex pair analysis setups amid global uncertainty.
USDCHF
The Swiss Franc is performing similarly to the Yen, gaining strength as a hedge against the U.S. Dollar. Both MACD and RSI show bearish signals, suggesting more downside for this pair as risk sentiment turns defensive.
USDCAD
The Canadian Dollar remains weak but is testing the EMA200 and the bottom of its consolidation range. The MACD and RSI suggest building bullish momentum. If the price breaks above the EMA200, we could see a return to bullish behavior, offering rapid trade setups later in the week.
COT Reports Analysis
Here’s the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) outlook, reinforcing the directional bias:
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – WEAK (3/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – WEAK (3/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – STRONG (5/5)
- NZD – WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – WEAK (3/5)
Use these ratings to validate or filter your trades. If you’re reviewing execution performance or platform tools, refer to our MT4 vs MT5 comparison to identify which platform aligns with your strategy.
Final Thoughts
Markets are extremely reactive following the rollout of U.S. tariffs. As this week’s forex pair analysis shows, volatility is high, direction is fragile, and sentiment can shift instantly. Whether you’re looking for trading EUR/USD tips, quick rapid trade setups, or evaluating platforms via an MT4 vs MT5 comparison, now is the time for precision and patience.
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