MARKET OVERVIEW
This week promises significant market activity, with key speeches and data releases impacting forex chart patterns. On Tuesday, both BoE Governor Bailey and Fed Chair Powell will deliver addresses. Wednesday will see the release of US CPI data alongside another speech by Powell. Thursday includes reports on New Zealand inflation, British GDP, Swiss CPI, US PPI, and unemployment claims. US retail sales data will wrap up the week on Friday.
Adding to market volatility, former US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, intensifying his trade policies. Trump also hinted at introducing reciprocal tariffs, which could reshape capital distribution strategies early this week.
Geopolitical tensions remain high as Trump’s warnings to Iran have not deterred their purchase of Russian fighter jets, signaling potential escalation. Trump’s stance on preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons keeps this issue in focus, affecting worldwide economic indicators.
GOLD
Gold prices hover near all-time highs, supported by tariff threats and geopolitical escalations. The MACD shows muted volume, while the RSI edges toward overbought territory. Despite this, the EMA200 and broader price momentum remain bullish. Algorithmic trading signals suggest continued buying interest, reinforcing a bullish outlook.
SILVER
Silver remains consolidated within the 31.9590–32.5177 range. The EMA200 acts as strong support, but both the MACD and RSI reflect increasing bearish momentum. While prices may continue lower, breakout trading methods suggest consolidation as the market awaits further direction from gold and the dollar.
DXY
The Dollar has rebounded on tariff-related news, rising above previous support but stopping short of testing the last swing high. Although the MACD shows increasing buying momentum and the RSI normalizes recent gains, the dollar’s overall trend remains bearish as it fails to break key resistance levels. Forex chart patterns indicate potential volatility post-economic data releases.
GBPUSD
The Pound continues to consolidate but holds its bullish outlook above the 1.23883 support level. The MACD reflects a lack of directional momentum, while the RSI signals exaggerated buying pressure despite muted upward movement. While the long-term outlook remains bullish, short-term movements will depend on worldwide economic indicators.
AUDUSD
The Australian Dollar is supported by the EMA200 and a previous swing low, maintaining a bullish structure. However, resistance overhead continues to cap gains. Both the MACD and RSI signal growing bearish momentum. Algorithmic trading signals suggest that clarity will depend on increased market volume.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi Dollar faces greater downward pressure than the Australian dollar, trading below key support levels, including the EMA200. Tariff news has accelerated bearish momentum, as reflected in both the MACD and RSI. Breakout trading methods indicate the market favors further downside.
EURUSD
The Euro has struggled to capitalize on the dollar’s weakness, reflecting weaker Euro fundamentals. RSI indicates overbought conditions, increasing the likelihood of a price decline. The MACD reflects muted bullish volume, reinforcing the bearish bias. Fundamentals suggest further downside, with expectations for deeper ECB rate cuts this year amid tariff threats and deflation concerns.
USDJPY
The Yen is experiencing strong bearish momentum, with the RSI reflecting overbought conditions before the recent downturn. The MACD is nearing a bearish cross, reinforcing negative sentiment. The yen remains under pressure, with expectations for additional BoJ rate hikes shaping forex chart patterns.
USDCHF
The Swiss Franc shows steady bullish momentum, supported by gains above the EMA200 and 0.90743 resistance level. The MACD holds positive volume, and the RSI normalizes after recent upward movement. Capital distribution strategies suggest continued strength for the Franc in the near term.
USDCAD
The Canadian Dollar remains consolidated following last week’s tariff-related developments. While downward pressure exists, it is unlikely to push prices significantly lower. Algorithmic trading signals indicate a neutral outlook, awaiting further market cues to confirm either a continuation of the consolidation or a shift toward bullish momentum.
COT REPORT ANALYSIS
- AUD: WEAK (5/5)
- GBP: WEAK (3/5)
- CAD: WEAK (5/5)
- EUR: WEAK (5/5)
- JPY: STRONG (5/5)
- CHF: WEAK (4/5)
- USD: STRONG (4/5)
- NZD: WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD: STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER: STRONG (5/5)
